Sunday will be hot and sunny pushing 100 degrees again. Mostly dry for the day with a few clouds to begin tonight. Muggy conditions begin again as Tropical Storm Isaias runs along the coast of Florida towards the north-northwest getting closer to the CSRA. Starting Monday cloud cover will increase and our southerly breeze will increase gradually throughout the day. Late morning showers should begin to pop up throughout the CSRA with more abundant showers and breezy conditions into the afternoon as the storm passes to the east of us. By the time we get into the late evening Monday, Tropical Storm Isaias should be fading away towards the northeast of the CSRA where we will see it out of the southeast going into Tuesday.
As far as the strength and intensity of Tropical Storm Isaias, a few things are playing against the strengthening of the storm. Currently wind speeds are at 65mph near the center of the storm with moderate convection and precipitation around it. One of the key factors is dry land interaction. With at least 20%-40% of the storm’s structure beginning to drag up the coast of Florida, the intensity will continue to be hindered by the land it continues to move over. Another key factor playing against the storm intensifying is the amount of dry air and wind shear towards the northern half of Florida. This will hurt any sort of tropical intensification. Now, there are some things helping maintain it’s intensity as it moves northward. Sea surface temperatures are very warm right now, close to 90 degrees in some places, so the energy and the depth of those warm waters (Ocean Heat Content, if you remember from our Weather Question Saturday!) are sufficient enough to help keep the storm at tropical storm status. While it’s not out of the question to rule out some slight intensification possibly by 5-10 mph, the more likely scenario is that it stays around the same intensification as it passes east of the CSRA Monday.
For impacts here in the CSRA we’re looking at two factors, we have the tropical storm moving up the coast, and we have a front just to the northwest of the CSRA. While the southeastern half of the CSRA will begin the action Monday morning, afternoon showers and the occasional thunderstorm will form around lunch and continue into the evening for the entire area. Towards the northwest portion of the CSRA you might see a little sunshine first half of the day, but you’ll join the rest of the southern half of the CSRA in the afternoon when showers begin to form. There could be a few heavy showers around with wind gusts up to 25mph, some places to the southeast could see gusts up to 30mph+. While there isn’t any widespread damage or much damage expected at all, we should get up to an inch of rain in some places and see breezy conditions throughout Monday before getting back to normal on Tuesday.