At 800 AM, the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.5 North, longitude 79.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 18 mph, and a continued westward motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday
night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday
and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will
move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern
Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the
eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move
offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while the system approaches
the coast of Central America. Some weakening is expected tonight
while the system crosses Nicaragua and Costa Rica, but
restrengthening is anticipated Saturday through Monday while it
moves over the Pacific Ocean.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected to become a tropical storm today while slowing down over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours… high…90 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.