At 800 AM, the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 31.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and
a general motion toward the northwest is expected through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast and the system is expected to
dissipate in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located near the southern Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Radar imagery from Barbados and surface
observations indicate that the system has not become any better
organized since yesterday. However, upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the next several days if the system remains
over water while moving generally westward at about 15 mph over
the southeastern and southern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force
reconnaissance mission is currently en route to investigate the
system this morning.

  1. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
    as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of
    the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the
    ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those
    locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue
    to monitor the progress of this system.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.