1. Southwestern Atlantic:
    A trough of low pressure extending from the eastern Caribbean Sea
    northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad
    area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A surface low
    pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern portion of
    the trough axis later today or tonight, and environmental conditions
    appear marginally conducive for some subtropical development. A
    subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days
    while the system moves northward, then meanders to the west or
    southwest of Bermuda. Over this weekend, upper-level winds are
    forecast to become less conducive for development.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
  1. Eastern Caribbean:
    An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
    Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion
    of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Thereafter,
    environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
    development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
    while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward
    into the central Caribbean Sea.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.