At 1100 AM, the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin later today, followed by a northward motion on
Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the
north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is
forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is
expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near
or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the
Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday into Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight
or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
The minimum central pressure based on Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
- Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days before upper-level winds become less favorable
toward the end of the week. The system is expected to meander
during the next day or two and then move slowly north-northwestward.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.