At 1100 AM: the center of Hurricane Fiona was located
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 70.2 West. Fiona is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north-
northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected through Friday, followed by a somewhat slower
northward motion beginning Friday night or Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of
Bermuda tonight, approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across
Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Fiona is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today.
Some weakening is expected to begin tonight or Friday, but Fiona
is forecast to be a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds when it moves over Nova Scotia Friday night
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A NOAA Saildrone located about 50 miles east of
the center has recently reported sustained winds of 77 mph (124
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 936 mb (27.64 inches).
At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 33.8 West. Gaston is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn to
the east is expected by tonight, and a slower southeast or
southward motion is forecast by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the
Azores tonight through Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
- Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical
wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Although
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the
environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that
time. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over
the central Caribbean Sea this weekend. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the
Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain
today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia
later this evening.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are
associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm
waters of the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly
northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
- East Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.