At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A southward
to south-southwestward motion is expected later today and tonight
over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl
should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early
Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of
Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over
southern Mexico by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)
based on dropsonde data from the aircraft.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for some gradual development during the next
few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
about 10 mph. By early next week, environmental conditions are
forecast to become less favorable as the disturbance is expected to
move into an area of stronger upper-level winds.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.