Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is centered near
latitude 31.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 14 mph. A north to north-northwest
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North
Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina,
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the
low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the
coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical
storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
  • Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
    from the center.
    The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
    from NOAA buoy 41002 is 996 mb.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 500
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
  • Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.