At 800 AM, the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.6 North, longitude 76.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center will pass south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today
through tomorrow and approach Central America on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later
today. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and
the system could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).