8AM Tropical Update for Monday, September 18, 2023

The center of Hurricane Nigel is located
near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 50.7 West. Nigel is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph, and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Nigel is then
forecast to turn northward late Tuesday, and then accelerate
northeastward through the rest of the week.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph
with higher gusts. Nigel is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a
major hurricane on Tuesday. A gradual weakening trend could start
late Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.

Western Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near the
southeastern coast of the United States late this week. This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics this weekend if it
remains offshore while it moves slowly northward or northwestward.